Required reading, and some other stuff

With a lot of people going on about "GREEN SHOTS" and a recovery in the financial industry, please read the following article by Karl Denninger which pretty much sums up the situation.

If you can't be bothered to read it, please just take this advice - exit the stock market you're in, NOW. There's no point playing in a rigged game.

On a side note, this might be one of the funniest things I've seen in a while:


until next time, be well

If you read anything today...

...read this, required reading for anyone interested in a) the economical collapse, b) their own strategies for the future and c) getting themselves fired up with righteous anger a little bit. Read Karl Denningers ticker from yesterday here.

Hedge your positions, plan for the future. Be safe.

Down, down, down....

Buy and hold, the callsign for generations of investors who couldn't be bothered with the day-to-day trade of stocks, futures, bonds etc, is definitely not the thing anymore.

Everyone, from Warren Buffett to my mother, is saying that this recession is going to last, last and last some more. This is what the ones I believe in - Mish Shedlock, Karl Denninger, Barry Ritholz et al - have been saying for the last 2 years as well.

Well, here we are. With the dismal news of the biggest banks in the US and their economic state of affairs coming out late last week, the Asian markets are at this moment some 3-4% down, Europe is opening in the red and I do not believe the bailouts of AIG and the banks by the US government will do much to help US confidence and the Dow Jones later on today.

We're looking at a stock market that has lost more than 50% of it's value in 1½ years. It's going to lose a lot more. the S%P 500 is projected to land at about 250, from the 700+ it's now on. If you have stocks, either you're in for the LOOOOOOONG haul (2015-16 or something) or you should cut your losses now.

These are interesting times. I do hope we'll all get out unscatched in the end - singed, but not burnt, hopefully. Although I'm not betting on it. The last time the outlooks were this bleak, a chap named Adolf saw hos opportunity...

Some stuff about the global economic crisis

Today, Monday, Geithner of the US Treasury will put forth the "rescue plan" that will "save the US economy". Problem is, there really is no way to save the economy - not as such an economy as it has been for the past 20 years at least.

This housing based credit bubble has been the largest credit bubble ever. The crash in the economy will therefore be, and actually IS already, the largest crash ever. To try to prop it all up with hundreds of billions of US taxpayer money is just plain silly.

The reason I'm interested - and you too should be interested - is that the theory of decoupling (the theory that it doesn't matter what happens in the US, the rest of the world will continue to trade with each other or internally and will not be affected) has been proven utterly wrong. Everything is connected, and the better I, and YOU, know the real deal, the better we can prepare for what will come.

Here are some links to my favourite pages to keep track of what's happening. Have a look, have a loooong good read, and make your choice.

Ticker Forum, Mish's Pages, The Big Picture, Calculated Risk.

The end of the world as we know it?

So, today should be the day when it all goes to hell. The end of the capitalist world as we've come to know and love (or hate) for the past decades.

Nikkei is down, Finland is down, Hong Kong is down 12%.. and as it is not only the stock markets that are in trouble, it's the very life we are living, we will be in for some major changes.

In a way I'm happy. We should get back to basics, to communities, to REAL LIFE goddamit.

In the meanwhile, read the excellent Karl Denningers take on it all from last Saturday. Whomever is elected president of the US should hold the responsible parties RESPONSIBLE! Favourite quote: "A capitalist society is one in which those who make bad decisions fail and go bankrupt, not one in which those who fail are rescued by taxpayer money."

Tin foil hat on, seat belts fastened... here we go!

Argh...

... Too much to do, too little time. Sorry I haven't been updating this as I promised... I'll get back with the top-5 "How to create a successful tv format" any day now :)

In the meanwhile, why don't you check this out - it's the truth, I tell you! - and visit the pages of some of the people who wite the best economic analyses around, here and here. Read, learn, and if you have a spare 10-20k € lying around, why don't you make a load of cash now while it's possible!

until later.

3G iPhone , Geni, tv pilots and more...

... how to keep up? :)

Firstly, great news from Apple. The new and improved 3G iPhone is on its way, in an 8 Gb and an 16 Gb version. Moreover, we'll be looking at funky packages on offer by the operators - O2 in the UK, for instance, has some fairly attractive offers lined up. Goddamit, why did I go and buy a Nokia N95? Well, have to make do I guess.

Stumbled upon the nice little family tree / genealogy website called Geni, a handy tool for anyone who wants to get their family tree up and running. Fairly intuitive, easily managed, the possibility to go into great detail if necessary - it's all there. I like the "never shared, never spammed" motto they have on their opening page - on the other hand I am still a bit careful not to submit other peoples e-mail addresses, not even relatives. Facebook is sucky enough today, I don't need something else spamming everyone I care about.

I did promise to keep you up to date regarding the tv pilot we shot last week. It's now being edited and it's going to be really great! It's a football quiz show called Game On, and I'll give you all a link to a trailer for the format as soon as it's edited. Good feeling though, I believe that format can go places.

On another note, still slightly similar, I'll be heading off to Austria for the European Championships in football next Sunday. I'll watch Poland-Croatia and Russia-Sweden, so hopefully some great goals and a magical atmosphere, pretty please. Spain to win the tournament! Yes! Torres the scorer in the final. Double Yes!

I'm off to bed now. Last links though - if you want to understand what's going on in the world of economics, why the world is in a pretty shitty state at the moment in the economical sense and why it all is the fault of president Bush, look no further than the Calculated Risk blog or the insightful discussion on the Market Ticker Forum. You see, the world is changing, and not for the better, not with regards to economics. I will not mind the day when everything has to change because there is no more oil, but I believe some other people will mind. Just beware, and prepare, ok?

Until later.